Добро пожаловать в клуб

Показать / Спрятать  Домой  Новости Статьи Файлы Форум Web ссылки F.A.Q. Логобург    Показать / Спрятать

Главное меню
ДомойНовостиСтатьиПостановка звуковФайлыДефектологияКнижный мирФорумСловарьРассылкаКаталог ссылокРейтинг пользователейЧаВо(FAQ)КонкурсWeb магазинШкольникамКарта сайта

Поздравляем нового Логобуржца Акулина со вступлением в клуб!



The Yield Curve As A Forecasting Tool   Melvin Khomo

The Yield Curve As A Forecasting Tool

112 страниц. 2010 год.
LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread?s predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and 10-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce...
- Генерация страницы: 0.06 секунд -